Geotema 55

Odoardo Bussini

La recente evoluzione della popolazione in Umbria. Verso un declino demografico?

Abstract: The recent evolution of the population in Umbria. Towards a demographic decline?

The Umbrian demographic system shows some similarities with the demographic behaviours of other regions, especially within central Italy, but it also displays certain peculiarities. In the last fifteen years the population has grown progressively from 826,000 inhabitants in 2001 to 896,000 in 2013 (+ 8.6%). This trend was solely due to the increase in the foreign population which has more than tripled. The main population growth occurred in 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 coinciding with the sharp increase in resident foreigners. This was due to the new laws that encouraged immigration’s regularization. The other aspect to underline is the progressive aging of the population, linked to the progressive reduction of fertility and the constant increase in the survival rate. The reduced population growth which has been taking place since 2014 – especially due to the reduction of the migratory flows – could propel Umbria towards a demographic decline and a subsequent population aging (it is estimated that the elderly might make up the 30% of the population in 2040).

Keywords: Demographic Evolution, Aging, Migrations, Umbria, Italy, 21st century.

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